The government of Benjamin Netanyahu is desperately searching for ways to strike Turkey's weak points without touching allied targets, thus avoiding the risk of awakening the fury of Turkey's partners in NATO, and, as Israel Hayom emphasizes on August 20, this plan inevitably runs through Cyprus and Syria.
Specifically, Israel is reportedly studying potential scenarios on how it could strike Turkish military forces without triggering the activation of Article 5 of NATO, according to Israeli media reports.
As Israel Hayom reports, Israeli officials reached the assessment that the collective defense clause of Article 5 protects Turkish sovereign territory, but does not necessarily cover Turkish military forces stationed abroad, such as those deployed in Syria or Cyprus.
Concurrently, according to reports by i24NEWS and Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli intelligence services reportedly possess evidence that Turkey is preparing to dispatch weapon systems to Syria, including advanced air defense systems.
Israel on high alert - War plans and... legal tightropes with NATO's Article 5
Amid this climate, the Israeli Prime Minister convened an emergency meeting of the security cabinet, with the participation of the Minister of Defense and heads of intelligence agencies, to examine the rising tension in relations with Turkey.
A detailed examination of the limits and capabilities provided by a mutual defense treaty is not a process undertaken out of mere curiosity.
The effort to determine precisely where the power of Article 5 stops shows that this specific scenario is now being treated more seriously than ever in Tel Aviv.
Two allied nations of the United States, with one being a member of NATO, appear to be planning their moves while factoring each other in, within an environment of escalating geopolitical confrontation.
«Cyprus is the weak link in an Israeli-Turkish dispute...»
In this context, Cyprus emerges as the most complex and delicate friction point in Turkish-Israeli relations, emphasizes Israel Hayom.
Evidently, the Israelis, as indicated by the report, perceive the island as an extension of their vital strategic space.
«The Turkish occupation of the northern part of the island is illegal», they specifically note to legitimize any eruption of chaos on the island.
It is highlighted that in March, Turkey deployed six General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets and air defense systems to the occupied areas, where Ankara maintains a quasi-state entity recognized by no other country.
«The occupied area is located within the strategic space connecting Israel, the Republic of Cyprus, Greece, and Europe», Israel Hayom points out.
The presence of fighter aviation, integrated air defense, radar, electronic warfare capabilities, and naval assets can transform an occupation into forward Turkish military power against Israeli access routes, energy infrastructure, and strategic interconnection corridors.
On the other hand, Syria presents the «cheaper» and simpler scenario for a sweeping strike by the Benjamin Netanyahu administration: after all, Israel considers that it «acted before the Turkish military presence acquired depth and maturity» there.
«Inevitable shift of Cyprus's status through military conflict»
However, in occupied Cyprus, this strategic depth of Turkey already exists and continues to strengthen, emphasizes Shay Gal of Israel Hayom.
Time increases the cost of an overturn.
It does not legitimize the occupation, nor does it grant immunity to the military infrastructure built upon it.
«Restoring the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus across the entire northern part constitutes the legitimate end state», the Israelis clarify, foreshadowing changes through arms on the island.
If Ankara turns the occupied territories into operational depth against Israel, the Republic of Cyprus, Greece, or the infrastructure connecting them, then this restoration also becomes an «Israeli security requirement», the Israel Hayom article clarifies.
«Operation Neptune's Fury» begins from this premise.
This involves neutralizing the military functions of the occupation that transform it into forward Turkish power depth against Israel, the Republic of Cyprus, or Greece, preventing reinforcements, and restoring the status quo that Ankara has attempted to render irreversible for 52 years, claims Gal.
An established military fait accompli does not gain immunity simply because its reversal became costly.
Ankara should not confuse 52 years of endurance with a guarantee of the permanence of its presence in Cyprus...
«Issue will also arise with the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum»
«The same Turkish method appears at sea, without requiring a military garrison», the Israeli publication explains, commenting on Turkey's maritime strategy.
The 2019 Turkish-Libyan maritime boundary memorandum drew a line in the Eastern Mediterranean, bypassing the maritime zone that Greece attributes to Crete.
The European Council has concluded that this memorandum violates the sovereign rights of third states, does not comply with the Law of the Sea, and cannot produce legal effects for third parties.
Ankara, however, continues to invoke this construct to challenge Greek activities south of Crete.
«We will not leave Greece... it is our corridor to Europe»
This is the fait accompli translated into cartography: a line is repeated until political reality hardens around it, and then it is presented for negotiation, as if repetition had turned it into a border.
A claim that creates no legal consequences for third states cannot acquire strategic consequences through coercion.
«The waters around Crete and Cyprus constitute Israel's strategic corridor to Europe».
«We have energy, cables, navigation, and military access via Greece and the Republic of Cyprus», emphasizes Shay Gal.
Ankara cannot establish a maritime veto over this space and expect that duration will turn a unilateral claim into consent, he concludes, linking Israeli aims against Ankara with the protection of Greek waters.
Turkish-Israeli chaos ignited in Somali waters as well
Finally, Turkey operates in Somalia with the approval of Mogadishu.
It maintains its largest overseas military training base in the Somali capital, has deepened defense and naval ties, deployed fighter aircraft there this year, and is advancing a space and missile testing complex near Warsheikh.
A ballistic missile testing ground in Somalia does not need to pose an immediate threat to Israel.
It exists to prepare a missile that may later be deployed elsewhere.
Consequently, Tel Aviv monitors what Turkey seeks to learn in Warsheikh, not just what it deploys there.
The development of propulsion, guidance, and range technologies in this area bolsters capabilities that can be used in theaters of operation far beyond the Horn of Africa.
Somali consent binds Ankara and Mogadishu, not Israel.
From the moment capabilities developed there restrict Israeli access or threaten Israeli territory, infrastructure, or strategic interests, «this development ceases to be merely a bilateral issue», the Israeli publication concludes, pointing to another potential front that could become an uncontrollable flashpoint between the administrations of Benjamin Netanyahu and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan...
Nevertheless, the reasonable question that arises is whether Greece stands to gain or lose by becoming entangled in this confrontation...
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών