The party of Tsipras, but also the former prime minister himself, are not creating a wave of reversal, and the worst part for him is that citizens do not trust him as an alternative solution
The Maximos Mansion may observe that the needle remains stuck and the qualitative characteristics of opinion polls hint at a coming setback, but this time alarm bells rang loud and clear on Amalias.
And this is because the party of Tsipras, but also the former prime minister himself, are not creating a wave of reversal, and the worst part for him is that citizens do not trust him as an alternative solution.
From bad to worse
Indeed, following the Thessaloniki International Fair, matters have been going from bad to worse, prompting a change in strategy and an opening toward former SYRIZA cadres who had been sidelined, while sending Alexis Tsipras onto the streets and campaign tours.
Although the picture emerging from these efforts has also generated skepticism.
At the same time, despite the efforts and attacks mounted against it, PASOK appears to hold ground and even gain slight momentum in measurements.
In parallel, the media communications support that Alexis Tsipras enjoyed is turning from a torrential operation into a drizzle, as he failed to convince that he can deliver, and business figures have started pulling back, making their backing more «discreet».
The explosive finding
Nevertheless, a finding in the new opinion poll by Interview deserves far greater attention than the battle for second place attracts.
On Amalias, where Alexis Tsipras attempts to construct his next political step, the 13.2% figure in public trust to govern the country can hardly pass unnoticed.
In the previous survey, on September 29, the corresponding percentage stood at 15.7%.
The retreat of 2.5 percentage points is clear.
The interesting element lies in the comparison: while ELAS records 15.7% in voting intention and stands ahead of PASOK, its founder loses ground on the question of personal trust. The two metrics do not measure the same thing.
Precisely because of this, however, the gap between them deserves careful examination.
Personal defeat
For a political venture tied so closely to the personality of the former prime minister, electoral influence is not sufficient on its own.
It also requires the conviction that the leader can take the reins of government once again.
The 13.2% figure does not mean that the project faces an impasse.
It means, however, that the party's momentum does not automatically translate into a corresponding reinforcement of Tsipras's personal standing.
And it is reasonable to ask: how easily can one politically capitalize on a second-place position when personal trust in the figurehead moves in the opposite direction?
The 61% that disrupts calculations
If the 13.2% causes concern on Amalias, the second poll finding affects the entire opposition front.
When asked which of the two parties, ELAS or PASOK, conducts more credible opposition against the government, 61% answer «neither of the two».
PASOK garners 24% and ELAS 15%.
Here lies the true political problem.
Charilaou Trikoupi can invoke its lead in opposition credibility.
On Amalias they can hold onto the second-place ranking in voting intention as an argument.
Yet the vast majority of respondents choose neither party as a more credible opponent to the government.
Credibility still sought
In other words, the battle for supremacy in the opposition arena is being waged on ground where opposition credibility itself remains a question mark for many citizens.
And this is a message that suits neither Nikos Androulakis nor Alexis Tsipras.
Their mutual rivalry may generate headlines, statements, and political barbs.
It does not prove, however, that it has convinced society that either of them can represent a credible alternative.
Dilemmas for two
On Amalias, therefore, the question is not merely whether ELAS will hold second place.
It is whether Tsipras will manage to convert electoral support into personal trust for governance.
And on Charilaou Trikoupi, correspondingly, the goal is not simply to stay ahead of its rival, but to prove that it can exercise meaningful and credible opposition.
The numbers do not herald a political upheaval by themselves. They sound an alarm, however: second place is an opinion poll correlation; trust and credibility are much harder bets. And these are the findings that figures on Amalias and on Charilaou Trikoupi have every reason to study closely.
Particularly when citizens are ready for political change, yet find nowhere to lean, neither on ELAS nor on PASOK!
O Peiraiarchis
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